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Where We Work  |  Program

Vaccine Forecasting and Supply Planning

The Immunization Collaborative Supply Planning Strengthening (ICSPS) project strengthens the capacity and agency of four countries to apply evidence-based forecasting and supply planning (FSP) decisions. The goal is to (1) achieve sustainable, systematic immunization supply chain changes with improved coverage, reduced waste, and reduction in zero-dose children using data, analytics and improving system capacity; and (2) showcase alternative FSP approaches and evidence to contribute to global resources.

May 10, 2020   |   Blog Post

Arming Community Health Workers for Battle: A Quantification Tool and Process to Support Equipment for CHWs in Liberia

A global shortage of personal protective equipment (PPEs) is affecting health workers including Community Health Workers (CHWs) in low-income countries. These health and community workers are the frontlines of defence against infectious diseases including COVID-19 and need these PPEs to protect themselves before protecting...

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Background

Limited use of data and forecasting methods in many immunization programs leads to poor supply planning, stockouts, and overstocks, and ultimately impacts countries’ abilities to meet coverage goals and immunize zero-dose children. Vaccine forecasting and procurement in countries have used population estimates for number of children to reach in a year and applying a percentage for safety stock, without accounting for consumption. However, the immunization ecosystem has evolved with new vaccines with different schedules, changes in demographics, and migration. Thus, there is a need and opportunity for improved forecasting that produce better forecasts and supply plans to avoiding over- and under-stock. This work aligns with Gavi’s Comprehensive Vaccine Management (CVM) approach to support data-driven forecasting and agile supply planning.

VillageReach initially partnered with JSI for the Vaccine Collaborative Supply Chain Initiative for COVID-19 vaccine supply planning in Mozambique, Malawi, and DRC. ICSPS builds on this and is focused on strengthening routine immunization data systems and data analysis to provide insights for more agile and responsive vaccine supply decisions, particularly around the timing and quantity of needed shipments. VillageReach is implementing ICSPS in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Mozambique, JSI in Ethiopia, and CHAI in Nigeria.

Resources

immunization strengthening project

Fact Sheet  |  2024

Immunization Collaborative Supply Planning Strengthening Project

Report  |  2022

Improving forecasting and vaccine access with private health providers for urban poor communities

Tool  |  2020

PPE Quantification and Forecasting Tool

Tool  |  2020

PPE Quantification and Forecasting Tool Process

Theory of Change

The critical levers are:

  • Appropriate and high-quality data are routinely collected in reporting systems and used in the analysis that enables improved FSP decision-making. 
  • Strengthened vaccine country-adapted FSP guidance and associated standard operating procedures to enable critical decision-makers to apply additional vaccine FSP approaches. 
  • Global leaders consensus on the additional effective FSP methods, revised the global FSP guidance, and can support and implement alternative vaccine FSP methods.

Related Global Impact

See the latest updates from our work to improve access to quality healthcare in the world’s most underserved communities.

Supply Chain Professionalization

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Outsourced Transport Resource Center

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Last Mile Supply Chain (LMSC)

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Nouvelle Génération des Chaînes d’Approvisionnement (NGCA)

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